The forecast of vulnerability of Belarussian lakes to external impact under the climate change

Аннотация

The article presents a forecast of changes in the sensitivity of Belarus? lakes to external influences in the conditions of climate change. Method E.A. Primak was used to calculate sensitivity integral indices for 149 lakes of different types. Among all lakes, classes with high, medium and low sensitivity were distinguished. A forecast of the dynamics of the sensitivity of lakes of various types to external impact was also prepared in accordance with the RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios.

The research shows that with the increase in water temperature caused by changes in climatic conditions, the development of lake geosystems will lead to a decrease in susceptibility to external influences. Reducing rainfall will increase the sensitivity of lakes by reducing the volume of water mass.